Cryptocurrency may not be as partisan an issue as some might think, particularly in key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Research commissioned by Coinbase suggests that the distribution of young crypto holders across political lines is almost evenly split, with 41% identifying as Democrats and 39% as Republicans. This data, gathered by Impact Research in July, highlights the potential influence of the cryptocurrency community on the upcoming election, especially among voters under 35.
The Significance of Young Voters
Young voters have the potential to significantly impact the results of the 2024 election, particularly in swing states where elections can be decided by a narrow margin. Coinbase emphasized this point, noting that “Young voters can tip the scales for either party – and this is all the more critical in battleground states where a handful of ballots can mean the path to victory for either party.”
Historically, younger voters have played a crucial role in election outcomes. In the 2020 U.S. elections, approximately half of eligible voters between the ages of 18 and 29 turned out to vote, representing an 11-point increase compared to 2016. However, this pattern of voter engagement does not always extend to midterm elections. Data from Pew Research showed that in 2022, only about 36% of those who voted in the midterms were under 50, down from 40% in 2018.
Given these dynamics, Coinbase argued that candidates from both political parties “must pay attention to the young, diverse, pro-crypto constituency that can make or break campaigns” in the 2024 election.
Cryptocurrency and Political Platforms
During his political career, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has evolved in his views on cryptocurrency. Initially, Trump was highly critical of Bitcoin, calling it a “scam” and “based on thin air.” However, he later shifted his stance, even creating a line of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and advocating for all Bitcoin to be mined in the U.S. This change indicates a growing recognition of the importance of digital assets among the Republican base.
On the Democratic side, the ticket led by Vice President Kamala Harris has largely remained silent on the topic of digital assets since the campaign launched on July 21. Despite the growing significance of cryptocurrency in the economy, the Democratic Party has not made any substantial statements or policy positions on the issue. The party held its convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22, and some industry leaders speculated that digital assets would not be addressed by the nominee. The party updated its official platform on August 18, notably without any mention of cryptocurrency or blockchain technology.
The State of the Race
As of August 19, polls indicate that Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie nationwide. In crucial swing states, either candidate is leading or trailing slightly, making the race highly competitive. The 2020 election serves as a reminder of how pivotal these states can be; President Biden’s victory over Trump was determined by a margin of roughly 80,000 votes combined across three key states.
The near-equal split in crypto voter affiliation between Democrats and Republicans in swing states highlights the potential impact of the cryptocurrency community on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. With both parties recognizing the importance of young voters, the stance on digital assets could become a more prominent issue as the election approaches. However, the current silence from the Democratic side on cryptocurrency, contrasted with Trump’s evolving position, adds an intriguing layer of complexity to the race. As the election draws closer, how each party engages with this growing constituency may play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
