Peter Brandt, the seasoned chart analyst and CEO of Factor LLC, known for his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, has recently shifted his stance. In a new report to CoinDesk, Brandt suggests that Bitcoin may have already peaked, diverging from his earlier prediction of a prolonged bullish cycle.
Shift in Projections
Brandt’s earlier forecast in February anticipated that the bullish trend initiated in November 2022 could propel Bitcoin to as high as $200,000 by September 2025. However, his latest analysis introduces the concept of “exponential decay,” implying a gradual reduction in the intensity of Bitcoin’s price surges with each cycle, correlating with halving events.
Brandt explains that historically, Bitcoin has undergone approximately four-year bull/bear cycles, each progressively less potent than its predecessor in terms of price multiples gained:
- The initial bull run escalated from $0.01 to $31.91—a 3,391x increase.
- Each subsequent rally, while longer in duration, has seen a roughly 80% reduction in growth magnitude.
According to Brandt, if the pattern holds, the recent high of $73,835 in March 2024 aligns with the expected outcome of exponential decay, suggesting that the peak for this cycle may have been reached.
Historical Context and Predictive Limitations
While Brandt famously predicted Bitcoin’s 2018 downturn, he acknowledges that past data does not invariably predict future results. Notably, Bitcoin’s halving events have historically triggered bull markets, lending some uncertainty to the current market predictions.
Despite the theory of decay, the crypto community largely anticipates that the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin’s price between $60,000 and $70,000 will lead to another bullish surge. Brandt himself speculates that the bull trend could climb to between $140,000 and $160,000 by late 2025, driven by the halving cycle.
Brandt’s Continued Watch
Brandt remains vigilant, indicating that the exponential decay theory will stay on his radar pending new evidence suggesting it might not influence the ongoing bull trend that began in late 2022.
As Bitcoin trades at $62,300, down slightly over the last 24 hours, the market watches closely. Whether Brandt’s revised outlook will hold as future events unfold remains a point of keen interest and debate among investors and analysts.
