Geopolitical Tensions, US Elections Favor Bitcoin ‘Debasement Trade’

Investors are increasingly turning to gold and Bitcoin in what is being termed a “debasement trade,” as they brace for a potential “catastrophic scenario” amid rising geopolitical tensions. This insight comes from an October 3 report by JPMorgan, which outlines how current events are influencing investor behavior.

The Debasement Trade Explained

According to JPMorgan, rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming United States elections are likely to reinforce the “debasement trade,” which favors both gold and Bitcoin. The term refers to the growing demand for gold driven by various factors, including:

• Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty: Since 2022, global political dynamics have shifted, creating a climate of instability that drives investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.
• Persistent Inflation Concerns: Ongoing uncertainties regarding long-term inflation have prompted many investors to seek protection in assets that traditionally retain value.
• High Government Deficits: Concerns about consistently high government deficits across major economies further bolster demand for assets perceived as safer or more stable.

JPMorgan’s report notes that these factors collectively contribute to a heightened demand for gold and Bitcoin as a response to economic uncertainties.

The report highlights a significant uptick in open interest on Bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This trend suggests that speculative institutional investors, such as hedge funds, may be viewing gold and Bitcoin as comparable assets.

• Open Interest Growth: The net open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has surged from approximately 10,000 contracts at the start of 2024 to over 40,000 contracts as of October 1. This dramatic increase indicates a growing interest in Bitcoin among institutional players.

In addition, the report points out that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have started to see inflows again in September after experiencing an outflow in August. This suggests that retail investors might also be viewing gold and Bitcoin similarly.

The Role of Cryptocurrency ETFs

According to data from fund researcher Morningstar, cryptocurrency ETFs have seen inflows exceeding $20 billion in 2024. This surge follows the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January and July, respectively. The growth in ETF investments indicates a robust interest in cryptocurrency as an asset class.

JPMorgan’s report further suggests that the “debasement trade” could intensify if Donald Trump, the Republican US presidential nominee, wins in the upcoming November elections. The report outlines how a Trump victory could have a twofold effect:

1. Support for Bitcoin Regulation: Trump’s regulatory stance may be more favorable for Bitcoin, which could encourage further investments in the cryptocurrency.
2. Expansionary Fiscal Policy: A Trump administration is expected to adopt expansionary fiscal policies, which might lead to increased tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Such policies could lead to “debt debasement,” reinforcing the appeal of gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.

Promises to the Crypto Industry

Trump has actively engaged with the crypto community, making promises such as “firing” the SEC’s chairman, Gary Gensler, and positioning the US as the “crypto capital of the world.” These commitments have resonated with many in the industry, potentially influencing their investment strategies.

As geopolitical tensions escalate and the political landscape shifts ahead of the upcoming US elections, the “debasement trade” appears to be gaining momentum. With investors increasingly looking to gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, the dynamics of the financial market may experience significant changes.

JPMorgan’s insights underscore the interconnectedness of political events, economic policies, and investor behavior. As the landscape continues to evolve, the roles of gold and Bitcoin as alternatives to traditional financial instruments will likely remain prominent in investor strategies.