NASA will announce on Saturday, August 24 whether astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams will return to Earth aboard Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft or use SpaceX’s Dragon capsule instead. This decision carries significant implications for the space industry and the future of public-private partnerships in space exploration.
Technical Issues with Starliner
Boeing launched its first crewed Starliner mission on June 5, aiming to complete an eight-day stay at the International Space Station (ISS). This mission is critical, as it represents the final hurdle before the Starliner can be certified for regular astronaut transportation to and from the ISS. However, the mission faced technical setbacks during its approach to the station, including the failure of multiple thrusters and helium leaks in the propulsion system. Although engineers were able to bring four out of five malfunctioning thrusters back online after about an hour, issues remain unresolved.
Boeing and NASA have been conducting a thorough investigation into these problems, analyzing data from the Starliner’s onboard systems and performing ground tests at the White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico to simulate conditions similar to those during the spacecraft’s departure from the ISS.
NASA’s main concern is ensuring a successful de-orbit burn, a crucial part of the spacecraft’s re-entry process. According to Ken Bowersox, NASA’s associate administrator, the propulsion system must perform flawlessly throughout the de-orbit burn to guarantee a safe return. This has led to internal disagreements within NASA about the best course of action.
Boeing has publicly stated its confidence in the Starliner’s safety and the comprehensive nature of its test program. However, if NASA decides Starliner is not safe for the astronauts’ return, the spacecraft could undock and return autonomously, with Wilmore and Williams riding back on a SpaceX Dragon capsule instead. NASA and Boeing have dismissed concerns that the astronauts are stranded, emphasizing that there is no rush to bring them home.
Potential Scenarios for Astronauts’ Return
If NASA opts to use Dragon for the return journey, several scenarios are possible:
- Delaying the Crew-9 mission: This mission, already rescheduled for September 24, could be further delayed. In this case, Williams and Wilmore could return to Earth on the Dragon capsule at the end of its mission in February 2025.
- Splitting the return: One astronaut could return on Crew-8, and the other on Crew-9. This scenario would mark the first instance of a Dragon capsule carrying five astronauts. However, this would require adjustments to the Crew-9 manifest to accommodate the returning astronauts.
SpaceX’s Dragon capsule has become a vital part of NASA’s operations, being the only American-made spacecraft certified for crewed missions. It completed its crewed certification in 2020 and has since conducted eight missions for NASA, along with additional private human spaceflight missions. Starliner, currently Dragon’s only significant competitor, remains under scrutiny. Should NASA decide against using Starliner for this mission, the Dragon capsule would be the sole option for American astronauts, further increasing its strategic importance.
Implications for NASA and Boeing
The decision on Saturday will be preceded by a comprehensive agency-level review of the situation, known as a Flight Readiness Review, led by NASA’s top officials, including Administrator Bill Nelson.
The outcome could have lasting implications for Boeing, which has invested more than $1.5 billion in the Starliner program. It is uncertain if Boeing would continue its efforts to develop the spacecraft if this mission does not succeed. For NASA, which has paid Boeing $4.2 billion over the years for the development of Starliner, the decision could lead to challenging budget discussions if only one commercial astronaut transportation provider remains viable.
Regardless of the outcome, Saturday’s decision is expected to be a pivotal moment for privately developed spaceflight and the dynamics of public-private partnerships. NASA’s announcement is scheduled for 10 a.m. Pacific time, and the results will be closely watched by industry stakeholders and the public alike.
